How does luck affect sports betting?

Are profitable sports bettors lucky or skilled?

We all heard stories about casual bettors placing big accumulator bets and winning 10,000 euros from a 100 euros initial deposit. Was it the result of luck or skills?

Well, the key to successful sports betting is to find value from a bet. Value means that the odds available are higher than the actual probabilities of your bet to win, for instance 2.30 when the team or player has rougly 50% chance to win.

Can a beginner ignore the concept of value and still win money?

Yes. For example in a coin toss, to expect either a head or tail implies a probability of 50%, which is the equivalent of odds of 2.00 (margin excluded). Anyone can toss a coin 10 times and get a head 7 times. The probability of it landing heads up 5 times is actually of about 25%. However, if anyone could toss a coin a million times, he will necessarily get a head very close to 50% of the time. That is because long-term high variance comes into play.

How about luck or bad luck in sports betting?

If we apply this knowledge to sports betting, it means that winning 7 out of 10 bets on odds of 2.00 right after your first deposit, does not necessarily mean you are a good punter. The same way losing 7 out of 10 bets does not necessarily mean you are a bad bettor. On the other hand, if you have placed 2,000 bets and you have secured a profit, then it is very unlikely it came out from luck and is more likely the outcome of sharp betting choices.

The luck we are discussing is just long-term variance. Many punters put too much attention on the short term when it comes to betting, they either make a large sum quickly or lose a large sum. Remember, sports betting is a long-term high variance form of gambling. Over the long course, your skills will always prevail over the luck factor and determine whether you are a winner or a loser.

How long should I bet to know if my strategy is profitable or not?

From our experience, we know a sample size from 800 to 1,000 tips is the minimum number you should take into consideration before assessing whether or not you are blessed with either great luck or great talent.

It is crucial to apply strict money management rules to your betting bankroll. Unfortunately, almost every bettor or trader tend to increase the size of their stakes while on a losing streak.

Through this article, we also remind you that Betkeen is a betting exchange platform owned by Easysportbet and shared between our users. It is an exclusive service with the best payout rate of the gambling industry, ideal for sports betting and sports trading. If you have ever thought about accessing Betfair, Matchbook, Smarkets to become a soccer trader, tennis trader or an expert on horse racing, you might know what a betting exchange is. If not, please refer to the following article: Betting exchange FAQ.

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